Two new polls show Republican Scott Rigell with a lead over Democrat U.S. Rep. Glenn Nye and Independent candidate Kenny Golden in the race for Virginia's 2nd District.
It's important to note right off the bat that one of the polls was conducted for Rigell's campaign, and the second poll was paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee, so you've got to realize the conservative source here. Further both polls have a margin of error of 4.9 percent - so that needs to be factored into any kind of real analysis.
But you also have to believe that if Nye had polling that showed him with a lead in this race the information would be out there right now.
Polling can be subject to plenty of factors including the specific questions asked, the order of the questions, the sample of voters and even the simple wording of the queries. You would be amazed at the techniques that allow you to massage polling results.
That said, most political talking heads have suggested that the race leans toward Rigell in the district because of the balance of voters and also because of the excitement on the conservative end of the spectrum.
The poll coducted by Public Opinion Strategies for Scott Rigell for Congress gave the race a five point spread - with Rigell pulling down 45 percent, Nye capturing 40 percent and Golden polling at 5 percent when you factor in the folks who are leaning. The poll found conservatives much more likely to vote and suggested that independents are poised to break for the GOP.
Here's an interesting nugget of analysis:
While the conventional wisdom is that Republican-turned Independent candidate Kenny Golden hurts Scott Rigell, the survey indicates Golden affects Nye’s standing. Golden voters approve of President Obama’s job performance (59%-23%) and support the Democratic candidate on the generic ballot, 41% Democratic candidate – 18% Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, the second poll from the NRCC found an almost identical margin 45 for Rigell to 40 for Nye and 7 percent for Golden.
Rigell sent out emails welcoming the new polls and the NRCC also blasted the information out via email - so clearly the conservatives are happy to have numbers to back up the expectations of momentum. But the margins of error, the month left to Election Day and the sources of the polls shouldn't dispirit folks on either side.
For Republicans the task is to stay on message, rally voters with a Get-out-the-Vote effort and get the seat back. For Democrats, the real issues appears to be motivation, so Nye is going to have to find a way to get folks excited about his campaign in the final month-long push to the election. That's no easy feat for a Democrat running against health care and other Democratic policy initiatives. But it's also not unheard of and with the Obama turnout model the race is certainly within reach.
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