Virginia voters are just two weeks away from some must-watch primary contests, and in the 2nd District Republican Scott Rigell's campaign is claiming a 37 point lead over its closest competitor.
There are six Republicans vying for the right to challenge freshman Democrat U.S. Rep. Glenn Nye, a political newcomer who knocked off Thelma Drake during the 2008 election cycle with the help of a turnout surge for President Barack Obama.
In addition to Rigell - www.scottrigell.com - the other candidates running for the GOP nomination are Ben Loyola - www.benloyola.com - Ed Maulbeck - www.edmaulbeck.com - Bert Mizusawa - www.bermizusawa.com - Jessica Sandlin - www.sandlinforcongress.com and Scott Taylor - www.scotttaylorforcongress.com.
Rigell's been considered the frontrunner candidate for quite some time and he's snagged some important endorsements - including the backing of Gov. Bob McDonnell - who did pretty well in his former home district in Virginia Beach last fall on the way to a double digit statewide victory.
But Rigell has plenty of challengers and they've been more than willing to take shots at his campaign - for cutting checks to support Barack Obama's presidential run, for his car dealerships' lucrative payout from the federal "cash for clunkers" program - and for local issues too - because of his support for the "Yes campaign" which backed the doomed referendum for higher taxes for road improvements in Hampton Roads.
Frontrunner status is further called into question especially because of the "throw the bums out" atmosphere of the tea party folks - many of whom are not interested in backing traditional candidates from either party.
The early primary results in places like Kentucky and Pennsylvania have shown that voters aren't simply picking candidates based on party affiliation or endorsements. And in a crowded primary is never easy to figure out who is going to win because turnout ends up being a major factor - and many folks simply can't be bothered to vote in a June primary in a midterm election with no statewide candidate on the ballot.
But according to an internal poll for Rigell's campaign he has a commanding lead the the race is going to be a walk. It's important to remember that internal poll results come with wheelbarrow full of salt. Usually campaigns won't let you dive into the full information, because they don't want to give to many details away to their opponents.
Rigell's campaign released the polling memo- a short two page breakdown of what pollsters found out there - but it doesn't have all the crosstabs and other juicy bits that come from major polling operations.
This close to the primary Rigell appears willing to flex some frontrunner muscle, perhaps in an attempt to drown the spirits of other campaigns - or scare off opponents' supporters who hate hearing that the candidate they favor might lose by a wide margin. Voters love to pick a winner.
Here's Rigell's stock quote:
"I am pleased that my conservative message of cutting spending, creating jobs, and changing Congress is resonating so well with the people of Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore. While these results are incredibly encouraging, we will continue the focused, intense pace that has characterized our campaign since I declared my candidacy for Congress on July 8, 2009.
We will be traveling throughout the Second District, meeting with voters who are concerned about our stagnant economy, out of control spending in Washington and an out-of-touch Congress. I remain fully focused on our ultimate objective, which is bringing business sense and conservative leadership to our United States Congress."
There is a danger in claiming such a wide margin though, because many savvy folks might realize that such a commanding lead makes their vote backing Rigell numerically unimportant - and decide to relax a bit and maybe even not take the time to vote.
Further, it's unlikely that internal polls are going to drive anybody out of the race this late. If folks have made it this far in the primary - and they still have money in the bank - you have to believe that each campaign is simply going to sprint to ballot box and not give a hoot what pollsters are telling Rigell's campaign.
It ought to be interesting to see how the other campaigns react - or if they simply ignore the lofty internal numbers.
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