New poll: Obama has a clear lead in Virginia.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll shows Democrat Barack Obama with a 9 point lead over Republican John McCain among likely voters in Virginia -- 53 percent to 44 percent.

The poll was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll also surveyed Florida, Missouri, Minnesota and Nevada. Obama is apparently ahead in all four states, although it is not a clear lead given the margin of error. The margin of error in these polls is 3.5 percentage points, except in Nevada, where it's 4 points.

Florida: Obama 51, McCain, 47.

Minnesota: Obama 54, McCain, 43

Missouri: Obama 49, McCain 48

Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 47

Here's the interesting thing to keep in mind. The "Wilder Effect" has been cited before in polling of African-American candidates. It says that people tend to tell pollsters they'll vote for a black candidate, but can't bring themselves to do it on Election Day.

In other words, beware of polls that give African-American candidates wide leads. They don't always hold up. Wilder had a healthy edge in the polls in his 1989 governor's race and ended up barely winning.

Comments

[Independent-Moderate]

Any poll commissioned by CNN might as well have been tallied by Obama student campaign workers! Even Obama's Gaffe' for laugh's Vice-Presidential running mate Joe Biden says polls don't matter! Focus on the candidate's and what their plans actually are and not what they say in front of teleprompters and results of polling data by liberal media or conservative talk show nonsense.

[reggie_will]

Please don’t take this the wrong way, but a friend has recommended that I reach out to you about a problem that you may be having but may not be aware of: Have you ever considered whether your ostentatious support for Senator Barack Obama is really a disguise that hides a deeply anchored form of racism towards Black-Americans?

Racism comes in many forms, and there is a significant possibility that your sponsorship of Senator Obama is really an obsessive compulsion to prove to yourself, and to others, that you are not a racist. Have you looked within yourself and examined your motives?

Sure, we can turn it all into a joke, like some have: an Obama lawn-sign is the yuppy status-symbol du jour; a hip and shiny accessory, this season’s iPhone. “But dear, every Volvo in the Whole Foods parking lot has an Obama sticker on it!”—that’s yet another parody of White property-owning affluence as described by stuffwhitepeoplelike.com

Have you really considered why you are so fixated by Senator Obama? How important was the pigmentation of Obama’s skin in spurring your interest? Do you really believe that he, or anyone else for that matter, is more qualified to run for the presidency than Senator Hillary Clinton? C’mon, let’s be honest with ourselves; that’s the first step in the healing process.

Isn’t making a big deal out of Obama’s skin color just another form of racism?

Unfortunately, Senator Obama and his team have approached this question in a very cynical way. Can anyone really brand former President Bill Clinton a racist? After all he had done for Black people? Well, the Obama campaign did. Can anyone accuse the Rev. Jesse Jackson of being a racist against Blacks? The Obama campaign almost did.

You should be absolutely certain that you are not being carried over to the voting booth upon a guilt trip. You should take this opportunity to look deeply within yourself and ask, “Why did I fall for Obama? Why am I, after all that we have accomplished on racial issues, still feeling guilty? Am I an unconscious racist? Am I any better than those who pretend not to stare at an inter-racial couple?”

I’m sorry to tell you that voting for Obama does not absolve you of racism, it may even confirm it. You may be besotted by Obama because he’s the least-black, half-Black politician out there. Did you catch yourself thinking that Obama is remarkably “clean” and “articulate,” as Senator Joe Biden condescendingly said?

I beg you to visit www.instituteforhealingracism.org, and allow the healing process to begin. Cleanse your soul of the last vestiges of racism, and come over to a better world of hope, understanding and self-awareness.

[Chris Porter]

There is no way that Minnesota and Virginia will have the same MOV on election day. Minnesota was 6% more Dem than Virginia in 2004 and 8% more Dem in 2000 if you add in Nader.