It seems fairly obvious when you take a look at the political playing field in the Virginia U.S. Senate race, but some things just need to be spelled out.
U.S. Sen John Warner, 81, is hanging up his legislative shoes after this election so naturally there's a bit of a stampede to fill his seat. On the Democratic side you have former Gov. Mark R. Warner, a polling popular millionaire businessman who toyed with a presidential run.
On the GOP side you have former Gov. Jim Gilmore, a hard line conservative who preceded Warner in the executive mansion and generated little buzz during his race for the White House. And pushing Gilmore is Del. Bob Marshall, R-Prince William, an anti-tax anti-abortion legislator with little statewide name-recognition who is working to win over conservatives.
So why is Warner getting introduced by Republicans during his kick-off tour and courting old school conservatives that hang with Alan Vanasse? It's basic math really.
Warner knows that the state Democrats are solidly in his corner. He helped revive the party by winning the gubernatorial race gave Democrats a huge victory in 2004 with the tax increase for education and other core services and has been a fundraising machine for the party every since. He's got those votes - unless Macaca hits.
Warner also knows that Gilmore doesn't have the GOP base locked down - as evidenced by Marshall's run. Gilmore feuded bitterly with many Republican leaders in the General Assembly, especially over his signature issue - repealing the car tax. The animosity was so bad that when former Senate Finance Chairman John Chichester was asked by the Daily Press to compare the governors he worked with he rattled off nice things about Warner, Timothy Kaine and George Allen but refused to even say Gilmore's name.
So Warner and his folks look at the landscape and say - "We know we've got the Democrats, now lets go out and start poaching on independents and conservatives who still hold bitterness toward Gilmore and don't even know Marshall." That's a pretty good way to get to 51 percent of the vote.
That's why you're going to keep hearing Warner talk about being bi-partisan and forming the "radical centrists" in Washington D.C. And expect him to keep having high-profile meetings with Republicans.
Now don't kid yourselves, Virginia is still a conservative state. But if Warner can capture that middle ground while the GOP is still picking their nominee, he is going to be a formidable foe in the fall.
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Posted by: Ghazala Khan | Saturday, May 10, 2008 at 08:53 AM