Virginia's Republican tilt

Even as Virginia voters express unease about the economy, Iraq and President Bush, a new poll shows why the Old Dominion is likely to remain Republican country in the November presidential race.

The latest state survey by Rasmussen Reports shows Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, gaining major ground on both of his Democratic rivals.

The telephone survey of 500 likely Virginia voters, conducted last week, showed McCain leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by 11 percentage points. McCain leads Sen. Hillary Clinton by 22 percentage points.

If the election were held today, Virginians would back McCain over Obama by a margin of 52 percent to 41 percent.

A McCain-Clinton contest in Virginia would be a wipe-out. The poll gave 58 percent of the vote to McCain, compared to 36 percent to Clinton.

The new numbers show significant gains for McCain compared to just a month ago. The February survey showed McCain leading Obama by just 5 points. McCain led Clinton last month by 10 points.

The new March survey came after Obama had to explain the politically explosive comments of his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and after Clinton had to acknowledge she ``misspoke" about a trip she took to Bosnia in 1996 that did not, as she first claimed, involve sniper fire.

Many Democrats are hopeful that this year will be the first time since 1964 in which Virginia backs a Democrat for president. While the issues and public mood would appear to favor Democrats this year, the poll shows the uphill battle either Obama or Clinton would face in the Old Dominion.

McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 37 percent. For Clinton, those numbers are almost precisely reversed: 37 percent view her favorably and 61 percent unfavorably.

Obama falls in between the other two candidates, with a favorability ranking of 53 percent and unfavorability of 47 percent.

Like most of the country, Virginians have soured on Bush, with a stunning 46 percent rating his performance as ``poor." (Bush got ``excellent'' ratings from 19 percent, ``good'' from 21 percent and ``fair'' from 14 percent of voters.)

But Bush's troubles do not appear to have hurt McCain in Virginia, at least so far.

One possible reason: McCain's military background and the war in Iraq. The poll found 57 percent of Virginia voters believe the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq. That view is notably more optimistic than is the case nationally, where the figure drops to 47 percent.

As Obama and Clinton slog it out for the Democratic nomination, McCain has begun trying to unite the GOP behind his candidacy and introduce himself to voters. This week, he is conducting a ``Service to America" tour highlighting this military career in states where he has spent time.

That includes a stop in Virginia, where he will appear Tuesday for a ``town hall meeting" in Alexandria.

The Rasmussen telephone survey of 500 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. You can read poll results here.

The money isn't any greener outside Virginia.

Virginia lawmakers struggled to craft a budget in this sputtering economy, and yes, things are tough all over. Now, a new report from The Rockefeller Institute of Government tells us just how bad it is, and where Virginia ranks relative to other states.

Thanks to rising inflation, tax cuts and weak tax collections, real adjusted state tax revenue fell by 4.3 percent across the nation during the fourth quarter of 2007. That's compared to the same period in 2006.

"States are experiencing a classic nutcracker effect," said Robert B. Ward, deputy director of the institute. "Costs are rising sharply just as revenues falter. The result may be a squeeze on states' ability to fund services."

Virginia fares slightly better than the average 4.3 percent drop. We experienced a 3.7 percent decrease

We should point out that actual tax collections grew slightly during the fourth quarter of 2007, but the "drop" comes as inflation and legislative changes are factored into the equation.

Political wonks and geeks can check out the full report.

Download rockefeller_institute.pdf

Cuccinelli looks to run for AG.

Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, a conservative Republican from Fairfax County, is holding a press conference at this hour to discuss his political future, and it looks like he's running for attorney general in 2009.

A new web site is up and running to promote his candidacy. Next year's race could attract a number of Republican candidates. Among those mentioned as possible contenders in the blogs and in the press are Del. Rob Bell of the Charlottesville area and Sen. Ryan McDougle of Hanover County.

For more details, check out the Daily Press later today or tomorrow.

Marshall names manager, news director for Senate campaign

State Del. Bob Marshall has added a manager and news director for his campaign for John Warner's seat in the U.S. Senate. Marshall is challenging former Gov. Jim Gilmore for the GOP nomination to succeed Warner, who is retiring in January.

Marshall's campaign manager will be Steve Waters, who has been director of statewide grass-roots operations for the conservative, pro-life Family Foundation. Marshall touts Waters' experience as "grass-roots director of the successful 2006 effort to add the definition of marriage to the State Constitution as between a man and a woman."

Signing on as news director is Bill Kling, a former Warner press secretary and one-time national editor for The Washington Times. According to Marshall, Kling also "was director of the Writers Group for the 1992 Bush-Quayle national campaign, and has served as the Republican National Committee’s senior writer and editor."

Gail "for Rail" Parker is coming 'round the bend again

Gail "for rail" Parker -- the third candidate in the George Allen-Jim Webb Senate race a couple of years ago -- sent out a press release last night announcing that her supporters will be delivering a petition to the State Board of Elections today to place her on the ballot for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by the retiring John Warner.

Parker, an Independent Green candidate from Alexandria, describes herself as a "common-sense fiscal conservative ...  mother of 3, grandmother of 5, US Air Force officer (ret), businesswoman and retired Department of Defense executive budget analyst."

Her issue? She's for light rail. In fact, she's positively evangelical in her zeal for light rail. But if you think she's a one-note song, you've obviously forgotten her truly unforgettable campaign jingle from 2006.

So here's a reminder. Everybody sing!

The smoking ban continues to smolder.

For three years in a row, a House subcommittee has killed legislation that would ban smoking in restaurants. It rankles some people that a six-person panel can spike a proposal that attracts such widespread public attention and has been labeled a major public health issue.

Gov. Tim Kaine, who strongly supports the ban, doesn't sound ready to give up.

Addressing a caller on his monthy radio show on WRVA, Kaine said he hasn't yet developed a 2009 legislative agenda, but he sounded ready to take up the anti-smoking crusade again. When Kaine served on the Richmond City Council, it took him seven years to change municipal elections from May to November.

"Persistence is a virtue," he said. "This is a matter I feel strongly about."

It sounds like Del. Tom Gear, R-Hampton, will remain busy. Gear chairs the subcommittee that has killed the bills and he is no friend of the anti-smokers. As he sees it, the free market should rule. Restaurants should ban smoking because their customers demand it, not because the government wants them to.

Kaine and others would argue that the government already regulates restaurants -- requiring employees to wear hairnets, to wash their hands, all that stuff -- so anti-smokers aren't blazing any new trails, so to speak.

Anyway, sounds like we'll hear more about this.What do ya'll think?

How to telegraph a punch.

Sure, the three presidential candidates fight over what each one says. But in these highly charged times, that's not good enough or fast enough.

This morning, Republican Sen. John McCain issued a scathing critique of Democrat Barack Obama's speech on the economy -- before the speech was even delivered.

Why wait?

Here's the top of the press release that popped into the mailbox before 9 a.m.

ARLINGTON, VA -- John McCain 2008 spokesman Tucker Bounds today issued the following statement on Barack Obama's speech on the economy planned for this morning in New York City.

"No amount of rhetoric can hide Senator Obama's clear record of embracing the liberal tax and spend, big government policies that hit hardworking American families at a time when they're must vulnerable, and are certain to move America backward."

In case you want to really hear what Obama said, this is the Associated Press account of his speech.

We post. You decide.

Download obama_speech.doc

Marshall backers rip Gilmore's position on abortion

Two weeks ago, Jim Gilmore released a letter of endorsement from his pro-life backers.

Del. Bob Marshall fired back today, releasing a letter of his own from 51 "key pro-life leaders" who endorse Marshall and note former Gov. James S. Gilmore’s stated support of abortion during the first eight weeks of pregnancies "note former Gov. James S. Gilmore’s stated support of abortion during the first eight weeks of pregnancies."

The letter goes on to say that Gilmore's "position on abortion would authorize the taking of human life up to at least eight weeks of pregnancy. This 'nuance' of Gilmore’s position would leave unprotected nearly three-fifths of the unborn children exposed to medical and surgical abortions in the United States today – some 700,000 human lives a year."

McDonnell endorses Bolling for re-election. No, really

Here's a shocker: Attorney General Bob McDonnell has endorsed Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in Bolling's just-announced campaign for re-election.

Here's another shocker, from McDonnell's endorsement press release: "Bill and I have spoken at length about his decision."

He also had this to say: "As I begin to prepare for my campaign for Governor, I look forward to running next year with Bill as a ticket."

Read the full announcement here.

The Gilmore campaign comes to Hampton Roads

Former Gov. Jim Gilmore is bringing his U.S. Senate campaign to familiar territory in Hampton Roads - Paul Jost's house.

Jost and Gilmore have been close friends since Gilmore won the governor's office with his anti-car tax message. This year, Gilmore is running an uphill battle against former Gov. Mark R. Warner for the U.S. Senate seat that comes open as U.S. Sen. John Warner retires. The Warners are not related. Gilmore also has to fend off Rep. Bob Marshall, R-Prince William, who is putting up a conservative challenge.

It's no surprise that Gilmore would come to a fund-raising event with Jost, considering that Jost's political allies tend to find themselves well-funded. Jost and his wife, Laura, could be found on stage during campaign events in the midst of Gilmore's short-lived run for the GOP presidential nomination. Now he's coming back home on Friday April 4 to solidify the base.

Gilmore is likely to find fertile territory when he returns to the Peninsula, because his anti-tax message still works with local voters - witness Tricia Stall's strong run for a Virginia Senate seat.

It ought to be interesting to hear Gilmore's take on the new push to raise the local sales tax to pay for road projects, especially since he's coming to town just a day after local lawmakers plan a transportation huddle in Suffolk. Another collision course.