Democrats Expect Big Wins in '08

As Democratic campaign chiefs tell it, next year could be a ``seminal election" that will usher in a wave of Democratic victories and reshape the Congress.

And Virginia-- they hope-- will be leading the way.

Briefing reporters on Capitol Hill Wednesday about their election prospects for next year, Democratic leaders appeared confident they would make major gains after eight years of the now-unpopular Bush administration.

Voters, they insisted, are ready for change. And change, they said, means Democrats in most cases.

``This could be a seminal election," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. ``They occur about once a generation. They change the tectonic plates of politics and they create a generation for one-party governance."

It happened in 1932, under Franklin D. Roosevelt, Schumer noted. And it happened again in 1980, under Ronald Reagan, whose election brought to power a generation of Republican leaders who went on to control Congress in the late 1990's.

``And we're about at the tail end of the Ronald Reagan era, where his ideas-- fresh and, even as a Democrat, I'd say many of them needed at the time-- have just lost steam, lost resonance," Schumer said.

With polls showing voters trusting Democrats more than Republicans on most issues, Schumer predicted Democratic gains in the U.S. Senate that will come largely by turning conservative ``red" states to Democratic ``blue," or at least a shade of purple.

Virginia, he said, is one of seven states with Republican incumbent senators that Democrats expect to win next year. Democrats were buoyed in August when Republican John Warner announced he would step down at the end of his term, creating an open seat. Polls show former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner to be the leading favorite in the still-emerging contest.

``We're working on states which we normally would not spend a lot of time focusing on because we think it could be a big change year," Schumer said.

Republicans, of course, beg to differ. They have criticized Democrats this year for running a ``do-nothing Congress" and have said voter anger is directed at both parties, not just Republicans.

But there seems little doubt that Democrats begin the election with a likely advantage, particularly in the Senate. While only 12 Democratic senators face re-election next year, Republicans must defend 22 seats.

Democrat John Miller heads to Poquoson tonight

Conventional political wisdom says Democrats shouldn't waste their time with Poquoson, because voters in the quaint, rural enclave don't have much time talk to non-conservatives.

But Democrat John Miller has been knocking on Poquoson doors throughout his race against Republican Tricia Stall, and now he's heading out there for a rally Wednesday night.

They're kicking off the rally around 7 p.m. and running it until around 8 p.m. just north of NASA Langley Research Center at 306 Wythe Creek Road.

You have to wonder if Miller's going to be able to pull a significant amount of voters out of Poquoson, because that could make for a scary post-Halloween for the GOP.   

Davis' 2006 challenger won't run this time around

Shawn O'Donnell, who ran against U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Davis in 2006, has decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for the December special election to replace Davis, he says in a letter posted at Vivian Paige's blog.

1st Congressional District Democrats will hold a convention on Nov. 10 in Williamsburg, the same day that district Republicans will be gathering to choose from among their 11 candidates.

In 2006, O'Donnell received about 80,000 votes in the 1st District, compared to Davis' 144,000.

Philip Forgit of Williamsburg is the only announced Democratic candidate for the seat thus far, but O'Donnell says in his letter that others may come forward soon.

The special election will be held Dec. 11.

One more and we'll have an even dozen.

An 11th candidate has declared his intentions to run for Congress in the 1st District: Rob Quartel of Mathews County.

He is chairman and CEO of FreightDesk Technologies, which provides internet-based security solutions for international cargo management, port and border security and food supply safety. Its clients include the U.S. Department of Defense, Transportation and Homeland Security and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

He is former member of the U.S. Maritime Commission. From 1992-94, he was president of the U.S. Shipbuilding Consortium, which built mid-sized tankers in U.S. shipyards for international sales.

New poll still shows Mark Warner edge for U.S. Senate

A new poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Democrat Mark Warner with a 16-point lead over Republican Jim Gilmore in next year's U.S. Senate race.

In a head-to-head match-up of the two former governors, Warner would win 53 percent of the vote, while Gilmore would get 37 percent, the poll showed.

The margin was slightly narrower than last month's poll, when Warner led by 20 points. But the difference falls within the poll's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

A more comprehensive Washington Post poll this month gave Warner a 30-point lead, with the popular Democrat winning 61 percent of the vote and Gilmore winning 31 percent. The Post poll surveyed 1,144 adults, including 993 registered voters, while Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters.

Perhaps more interestingly, the Rasmassuen poll suggests a highly competitive presidential contest in Virginia next year.

Contests between the likely Democratic nominee, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, and several of the leading Republican candidates would produce a virtual dead heat in Virginia, the poll found.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, for example, would get 46 percent of the vote to Clinton's 43 percent-- a 3-point edge that falls within the poll's margin of error. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson would win 46 percent to Clinton's 45 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain would win 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent.

Virginia has not backed a Democrat for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.

The Post poll found Virginia voters preferring a Democrat in the White House by a margin of 45 percent to 34 percent.

Kaine launches campaign tour

With his legacy on the line, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine kicked off a statewide campaign tour Tuesday to help Democrats reclaim the majority in the General Assembly.

In the final week before the Nov. 6 legislative elections, Democrats hope to rally their base by crisscrossing the state to press their agenda for change at rallies, parades, schools, churches and wherever else voters will listen to them. Kaine will be joined in coming days on the tour by former Gov. Mark Warner and U.S. Sen. Jim Webb.

Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate and 11 in the House to capture the majority in the legislature for the first time since 1999.

Although he will not be on the ballot next week, Kaine may have as much riding on the election outcome as any of the candidates hoping to secure a legislative seat.

After spending his first two years battling Republicans over taxes and transportation funding, Kaine is hoping that a more friendly legislature-- controlled by Democrats-- will help him advance his agenda and secure his legacy in the final two years of his term. Among the priorities: greater access to pre-school programs and better health and transportation programs.

Kaine seemed well aware of the stakes as he addressed a rally of Democratic activists at the tour kick-off in affluent McLean, in Fairfax County.

``I need some better partners to keep getting good results," Kaine told scores of supporters. ``We have some good things going in Virginia, but there's so much more we could do."

Kaine, a relatively popular governor according to most polls, is hoping his appeal translates into support for lesser-known Democratic candidates in close contests that could tip the balance of power in Richmond.

But the effort is clearly a gamble. If Republicans retain control next week, Kaine faces two years as a wounded lame duck, battling Assembly leaders who may not forgive Kaine for the partisan campaign assaults.

Former Republican Gov. George Allen, riding high in the polls, tried to a oust a then-Democratic legislature in 1995. But after branding Democratic leaders as ``big-government dinosaurs" and ``monarchical elitists," Allen came up short and Democrats retained control. Allen spent his final two years as a bruised, almost marginal figure at times, though he ended his tenure successfully.

Kaine acknowledged the risk, but insisted he was only doing what voters want: offering them robust competition at the polls.

``I'm completely unapologetic about being involved in elections," Kaine said. ``I think my party is a really strong party. I feel confident we'll make gains."

Now watch for the GOP response in the 1st District

Hampton Roads voters, especially on the Peninsula, are getting a solid dose of former Gov. Mark R. Warner stumping for Democrat John Miller in the 1st Senate District race.

Warner's the star of the new ad for Miller and a new flier with his face on it is filling up mailboxes throughout Newport News, Hampton, York County and Poquoson.

It will be interesting during this final week to see how the GOP fights back for Republican Tricia Stall. It's likely to show everyone the basic blueprint for how Republicans plan to take on Warner over the next year as he campaigns for U.S. Senate. 

The strongest anti-Warner message fits perfectly with Stall's bread-and-butter, and Stall is getting enough late donations that you'll probably see some new, crunch-time commercials. They've been hammering Miller hard on taxes, and the second you bring up Warner most conservatives instantly point to some of Warner's ads from when he ran for govenor.

I'm guessing the GOP is going to use this clip heavily.

It's a video of Warner promising not to raise taxes. In 2004 Warner and centrist Republicans banded together to raise taxes to eliminate a budget deficit.

I'd be willing to bet that some video editor could have fun splicing that promise in with some clips of Miller. "We trusted Mark Warner on taxes..... Can we trust John Miller?"

Who knows if that kind of message will alter the Miller-Stall race, but it sure seems like fertile territory.

But, hey, we're just speculating. 

It's Bush vs. Warner in new Democratic mailers

It looks like the Democrats are using the final week of the campaign to hang their hopes on former Gov. Mark R. Warner's rising star, while simultaneously attempting to link the GOP to President Bush's sinking ship.

The state Democratic Party is sending out a pair of mail pieces in the 1st Senate District where Republican Tricia Stall and Democrat John Miller are feverishly campaigning. Both mailers have the same, basic (and somewhat obvious) message -- "Vote Democrat." 

Warner is the star of one flier, which includes postcard-worthy pictures of Virginia landmarks on the cover and his picture on the back.

The other flier shows Bush holding bags of money and highlights his fundraising efforts for Virginia Republicans. It claims he's trying to buy "more extreme legislators."

It's been one of the underlying themes on the campaign trail since lawmakers left Richmond last spring, because Bush continues to pull in low approval ratings while Warner has enjoyed solid popularity. 

The most interesting part of the fliers is that they don't even try to get specific. They don't praise a single Democratic candidate or criticize any Republican hopefuls. The message is so general that these mail pieces can go out to any home in any part of the state.     

Tax pledge, Part II

As I was posting news of 1st District congressional candidates Paul Jost and David Caprara signing the No Tax Pledge, a third piece of news appeared in my In Box.

Kevin O'Neill, the Williamsburg attorney making his first run at public office, has also signed the pledge. For details on the pledge itself, see the post below.

Sense a trend among these Republican hopefuls? We'll try to keep you updated at these roll in.

Chuck Davis is gathering endorsements

Chuck Davis is running for Congress because he wants to finish the work of his wife, Jo Ann, who died after a battle with breast cancer. She held the 1st District seat for seven years.

If endorsements matter in this 10-candidate race - which starts with a nominating convention on Nov 10 and ends in a Dec. 11 special election -- Davis is racking them up.

He has the backing of Sen. Tommy Norment of James City County and two delegates from Newport News: Phil Hamilton and Glenn Oder. He has the endorsement of outgoing Del. Melanie Rapp of York County and GOP candidate Brenda Pogge, who hopes to succeed Rapp.

Now comes word that a dozen sheriffs in the 1st District are also urging Republicans to support the Davis bid.

Locally, the roster looks like this:

Williamsburg/James City County: Bob Deeds

York County/Poquoson: Danny Diggs

Mathews County: Danny Howlett

King and Queen County: E.C. "Bobby" Walton

Middlesex County: Guy Abbott

Newport News: Gabe Morgan

Add to that sheriffs from the city of Fredericksburg and the counties of King William, Spotsylvania, Prince William, King George and Stafford.